New research and analysis from Nomura offers a prediction for the outcome of the 2016 municipal elections, and how the most hotly contested metros will fare.
While polling by Ipsos and eNCA has shown the DA winning in three major metros – Joburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay – Nomura has taken a sceptical view, saying they carry a high margin of error and have issues in their construction.
“We take polling results with a large pinch of salt – investors should not simply read them as result predictors. However, we think they do show some interesting trends,” the group said.
Notably, Nomura says the Ipsos polling is likely overestimating the Democratic Alliance, while underestimating the ANC – but is fair in establishing that the former is gaining more support.
In its own predictions, Nomura forcasts that the ANC will win 56.5% of the overall vote (giving a range of 56.0% – 59.5%).
The ruling party will maintain strong support in rural areas (around 70%) while urban areas will drop to 50%. Voters unhappy with the party will opt to stay away and not vote, rather than switch parties.
However, in cases where voters do switch, Nomura sees the DA being the biggest beneficiary.
The EFF, meanwhile, will likely fail to break above 10% of total support, the group said.
Nomura result predictions:
- ANC – 56.5% (down from 62.0%)
- DA – 27.0% (up from 23.9%)
- EFF – 8.5% (new entry)
- IFP – 1.5%
- Other – 6.5% (down from 10.5%)
Nomura said that it does not publish predictions for specific metros, but “believe Johannesburg is much safer than Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay”.
“Overall, we think one or possibly two metros could fall from ANC majority control,” it said.
The group did, however, provide the following outcome predictions for the three major metros:
Nomura believes that the City of Johannesburg is safely with the ANC, due in large part to the popularity of current (ANC) mayor, Parks Tau.
“While (DA candidate) Herman Mashaba’s libertarian views could be
described as very investor friendly, they do not chime with the electorate in Johannesburg,” the group said.
“We expect the EFF and DA to take some ground against the ANC, but for the ANC to still be able to hold above 50%. Given the DA has further to go here than in other metros, a more messy coalition outcome would be likely if the ANC loses overall control.”
In Tshwane, Nomura sees a high likelihood of the ANC dropping below 50%, but no outright victory by any opposition party.
The ANC voters have shown they are dissatisfied with the leadership in the province, and as such, vote switching from ANC to DA is seen most likely here.
“The EFF and DA combined may fail to reach 50% however and require smaller parties like VF+ (which is particularly strong in the city vs elsewhere in the country). A three or more party coalition might be necessary,” the group said.
Nelson Mandela Bay
Nelson Mandela Bay, which is seen as a sure-win for the DA, is actually more complicated than it appears, Nomura said.
“Nelson Mandela Bay is very difficult to call because it has been such an intense battleground for all parties.”
“An outright DA majority seems unlikely, and with the EFF much smaller than elsewhere, a more complex coalition makeup is likely here with many smaller parties required,” the group said.
“We think a vote switch from the ANC to DA is less likely here than in Tshwane.”
Source: Business Tech