The final poll ahead of the 2016 elections, conducted by eNCA and Ipsos, has the Democratic Alliance winning the most hotly contested metros in the country.
The polls surveyed a demographically representative group of people made up of adults across all racial groups (majority black – 74%) between the ages of 18 and over 50, from low to middle income households.
In the initial poll at the start of June, the results showed that the DA would win two of the three most hotly-contested metros – Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane, with Johannesburg still under the control of the ANC.
Now in the final week – with many protests, scandals and heavy campaigning in the interim – the picture is very different.
The most notable change in the final results is that the “undecided” vote has dropped in every metro, though remains relatively high, still in the double digits between 11% and 12%. The ‘undecided’ vote has been one point of criticism associated with the polls, as they indicate a major swing could play out in the actual vote.
However, over the 8 weeks of polling, the DA has maintained a leading position over the ANC in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay, with a massive lead of 14% over the ANC in the latter two metros, respectively.
After weeks of decline across all three metros, the ANC has ended the period with an upward tick. DA support has grown in Tshwane and NMB, but showed a drop in Johannesburg, making the race much tighter in the country’s economic hub.
The EFF, which will be contesting its first municipal elections, has had a meagre showing in the polls, ending with its biggest support base in Tshwane.
Here are the results of the final election poll:
Tshwane – DA leads by 14.5%
- DA: 40.89% (+0.98)
- ANC: 26.33% (-2.85)
- EFF: 1.45% (-1.99)
- Undecided: 11.46% (-2.61)
Johannesburg – DA leads by 0.4%
- DA: 35.81% (-0.46)
- ANC: 32.28% (+1.34)
- EFF: 8.74% (-0.05)
- Undecided: 12.62% (-1.60)
Nelson Mandela Bay – DA leads by 14.0%
- DA: 41.84% 43.57% (+1.73)
- ANC: 27.61% 29.51% (+1.90)
- EFF: 5.98% 5.94% (-0.04)
- Undecided: 16.03% 11.25% (-4.78)
Source: Business Tech